Agricultural Decision-Making and Climate Variability in Guatemala
Guatemala, 2013
This project was the focus of my dissertation research. I combined multiple information sources to evaluate changes in extreme events and rainfall in Guatemala and explored how climate information is and can be used by farmers to better adapt to climate changes. My first chapter uses a sophisticated statistical modeling approach to understand the role of natural climate variability in the 2015-2019 drought in Central America and was published in Geophysical Research Letters. We found that the 2015-2019 drought was extremely rare, but could occur even without the influences of anthropogenic climate change. Based on future climate projections for the region, droughts as bad or worse than this one are expected. My second chapter combined satellite-based climate data and interviews with over 700 smallholder farming households and is published in Climatic Change. The climate data analyses in this paper indicate that trends in rainfall are widely variabile depending on region and time period of interest. Interviews with smallholder farmers also revealed a wide range in perceptions of recent rainfall trends. We showed that farmers who perceived recent changes in rainfall were more likely to adapt their agricultural maize practices, but that these changes were mediated by their income sources and dependence on agriculture. Ultimately, we found that it is essential to reconcile individual and community perceptions with observed and anticipated changes to ensure appropriate adaptation strategies within the specific agricultural context. My third and final chapter was focused on the quality and usability of seasonal climate forecasts and information among smallholder farmers. The manuscript is currently under review for publication. We found that the technical skill of published forecasts varies regionally, but that many of the model configurations used in the last five years could have provided some useful climate information. However, we also showed that very few smallholder farmers know about these forecasts or have access to them. We provided some recommendations for improving future seasonal forecasts in the region in terms of technical quality and societal value.
FUNDING
This research was supported by NSF Human-Environment and Geographical Sciences (HEGS) Grant BCS2049657: “Rainfall variability, extreme events, and vulnerability in heterogeneous social and environmental systems'', PI: Kevin Anchukaitis, coPIs: Matthew Taylor, Diego Pons, Tom Evans, Diana Liverman.
RELATED PUBLICATIONS
Talia Anderson
University of Minnesota Presidential Postdoctoral Fellow
I am a University of Minnesota Presidential Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Geography, Environment & Society. I recently completed another postdoctoral fellowship with the NOAA Climate & Global Change Program and was based at the University of California - Los Angeles in the McKinnon Group. My research focuses on climate variability and change in mountain landscapes across different spatial and temporal scales. I use a variety of data types, from models to satellite imagery, to explore climate impacts in both localized areas and large, multi-country regions.