Usability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Guatemalan Dry Corridor

Abstract

Climate services, including seasonal climate forecasts, have been promoted to foster proactive risk management and adaptation to climate variability and change across multiple sectors of society. In smallholder farming and rain-fed systems, where climate variability has an important influence on crop production and food security, information from seasonal climate forecasts has the potential to support and enhance agricultural decision-making. Here, we assess the usability of seasonal climate forecasts in Guatemala, drawing on aspects of both forecast quality and value. We analyze multiple attributes of quality for published forecasts made by the Guatemalan National Meteorological Service between 2019 and 2023 and for a comprehensive set of model hindcasts. We evaluate seasonal forecast value among smallholder farmers based on a survey of over 700 households in the departments of Totonicapán and Chiquimula, Guatemala. While the quality of seasonal forecasts varies regionally, there is evidence of marginal skill for some attributes across the multiple model configurations used in operational practices over the last 5 years. However, the household survey results reveal that very few smallholder farmers actually receive seasonal climate information. We make recommendations to enhance the usability of existing seasonal climate forecasts in Guatemala, including improving reproducibility and transparency of operational processes, better communication and presentation of forecast uncertainty, and updating and expanding dissemination efforts. Our findings underscore the need for greater engagement and collaboration between forecast providers and end users throughout the development and dissemination processes to improve the quality and usability of climate information.